I have been reading and re-reading this NBA 70% Math theory. It's got under my skin so I tore apart the original post and have made some analysis.
Give
home team 3 points Cle 27 - den 3 = 24 Add/subtract difference
Add/subtract the
point spread
Final number value
must be 10 or greater Cle 24 - 9.5 = 14.5
14.5 is > 10
Cleveland is a Road favorite at -9.5
Play is on Cleveland to cover the spread.
Another
PLAY can be derived from a negative /positive computation.
For
example Utah/Chic 1/25/98, CHI is -5 -110.
Chic
% is 714 and Utah is 675. Thus 714 - 675 = 39 or 2 points for Chic.
Chic was home 3 + 2 = 5 the spread had Chic by 5 or 5 - 6 = -1 or +1 for Utah. Utah won the game outright. The negative/positive
computation must be -1, +1 or greater for the PLAY
Negative
/positive computation
Chic
714 - Utah 675 = 39
Chic
2 + 3 (home) = 5
Chic
5 - 6 = -1 (or +1 Utah)
My interpretation:
VISITOR: UTAH Win % = .675
HOME:
CHI Win % = .714
714 – 675 = 39
20% of 39 = 1.95
Rounded up to the nearest 10th = 2
2 + 3 = 5
Line is CHI (Hm fav) -5
(This is where I get a
bit confused: Why, How, What, Where is the “6” insofar as UTAH is concerned?)
5 minus 5 = 0
0 is > -1;
This results in a no play
Ok
there it is, now this is how I figure it out.
If
you have a home favorite with a better winning %, to me, this is pretty much
straight forward.
You
take the higher %, subtract the lower %... divide by 20.
Add
3 (for being at home) and then subtract the spread.
If
this final calculation number is above 10 (=>11), it is a play on the home favorite.
If
this final calculation result is negative 1 (-1) or less, then it is a play on
the underdog.
If
the final calculation result is anywhere in between (0-10), then it is a no
play.
That's
it. Straight up, simple as can be.
Now
the tricky one
What
to do if a home team with a lower winning % is favored in the game.
This
is where the confusion lies. There has been much discussion as to whether or
not the dog needs to come out with a number above 10 or just the fact they are
a positive number is enough.
Now
I have had great difficulty interpreting how this should be played, and why.
I
finally decided to base my plays selection on two emailed examples I had
received from Walt.
Here
they are:
-------------------------------------------------------------
Example
1:
Christmas
Day 2000
Indiana at home minus 5 1/2 vs. Orlando
This
is what he types, word for word, letter for letter:
Orl
462-Ind 429=33 or 1.5 Orl-3(H) =1.5Ind-5.5(SP) = -4 Indy or +4 Orl -4 is > than-1
thus it is play. Orl (+5.5) Indy
Orl
lost.
My interpretation:
VISITOR:
ORL Win % = .462
HOME: IND Win % = .429
462 – 429 = 33
20% of 33 = 1.65
Rounded up to the nearest 10th = 2
2 - 3 = -1
Line is Indy (Hm fav) -5½
-1 minus 5½ = -6.50
-6.50 is < -1;
This results in a play on ORL +5½
Orlando loses the game and so does the
system
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Example
2:
Feb
2 2001.
Indy
home -4 vs. Den
This
is what he wrote:
Keeping
an eye on Den (+4) Indy -this is the 3rd situation where one team is % better
but is getting points and is not a -/+ computation game. Den 565 – Indy 444 =121
or 6; Den-3 (home-Indy) =3 Den+4 (spread Indy) = 7. Den (people would sub and
think it was 3-4= -1, I add 4 because if Indy -4 then Den is +4) It seems
logical that if a team is better % wise they should be giving points not
getting them so I have decided to watch this 3rd situation (1st-final #10 or
more, 2nd - -/+comp)
My interpretation:
VISITOR:
DEN Win % = .565
HOME: IND Win % = .444
565 – 444 = 121;
20% of 121 = 6.05;
Rounded down to the nearest 10th = 6;
6 - 3 = 3 (Denver is the dog but has a better win %;
Line is Indy (Hm fav) -4;
3 minus 4 = -1;
-1 is the final number value;
This results in a play on Denver +4;
Do not know the result of this game.