I have been reading and re-reading this NBA 70% Math theory. It's got under my skin so I tore apart the original post and have made some analysis.
Favorite
win pct. subtract dog win pct. add/subtract 3 for being home/away and then
subtract the spread, if the final number is above 10 its a play on the fav
spread, if the final number is below 0, its a play on the dog spread.
Example:
CLE vs. DEN
The
spread for the game is Cle -9.5 points
Cle
winning % is .600 and Denver is .057
Subtract
the difference
Cle
600 - Den 057 = 543
Give
1 point for every 20% points
Therefore
543 = 27, round to the nearest tenth
Home
team is given 3 points
Subtract
or add the difference
Cle
is 37 and Den is home thus 27- 3 = 24
Then
subtract or add point spread for the final number value
The
spread for the game is Cle -9.5 points, thus 24 - 9.5 = 14.5
The
final number must be 10 or greater for a PLAY. In this example, Cle is the
PLAY.
If
the spread is 10 or greater, do not play.
- Don't play if
selected team played the night before (No back to back games)
- Don’t play of one
or more regular starters are out. Allow one week for return of regular starters.
- Don't play 1st 20
games of the season or 1st 3 games after all star break
My interpretation:
Favorite win % minus Dog win %;
From result, you give 1 point for every 20% of the results;
Add\Subtract 3 for being home or away;
Subtract 3 from the home team if they are favored;
Add 3 to the visiting team if they are favored;
Subtract the spread;
If the final number is above 10, your play is on the favorite;
If the final number is below 0, your play is on the dog.
Example: CLE vs. DEN
The spread for the game is CLE -9½ -110.
CLE win % is .600 and DEN win % is .057;
Subtract the lower % from the higher %;
CLE 600 minus DEN 057 = 543;
Give 1 point for every 20% of the result;
Therefore, 543 = 27 (543/20 = 27.15 ~ rounded to nearest 10th = 27);
Home team is given 3 points for home court advantage;
This 3 point allotment,
in my opinion is questionable as a standard for this formula;
Subtract or add the difference;
(This is where I get a bit confused: Why, how
or what is “Cle is 37”?)
Denver is at home, thus 27 – 3 = 24;
Then subtract or add point spread for the final number value;
The spread for the game is CLE -9½ points, thus 24 – 9½ = 14½;
The final number value must be >10 for a PLAY;
(Again I get confused
because he states” The final number must be 10 or greater for a PLAY”)
The final number value is 14½. In this example, CLE at -9½-110
is the PLAY
Parameters\Filters
- If
the game spread is 10 or > 10, do not play.
- Don't
play if your selected team played the immediate day before (No back to
back games).
- Don’t
play of one or more regular starters are out. Allow one week for the return
of regular starter(s).
- Don't
play during the 1st 20 games of the season or 1st 3 games after all star
break.
10
steps to predicting the outcome of an NBA game:
- Check win %: Cle
600 at Den 057
- Subtract the teams’
winning %’s : 600 - 057 = 543
- Give 1 point for
every 20% points to result.
- Find point
equivalent 543 = 27 points, rounded to the nearest tenth (543 / 20 =
27.15)
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Give
home team 3 points Cle 27 - den 3 = 24 Add/subtract difference
- Add/subtract the
point spread
- Final number value
must be 10 or greater Cle 24 - 9.5 = 14.5
- 14.5 is > 10
- Cleveland is a Road favorite at -9.5
- Play is on Cleveland to cover the spread.
Another
PLAY can be derived from a negative /positive computation.
For
example Utah/Chic 1/25/98, CHI is -5 -110.
Chic
% is 714 and Utah is 675. Thus 714 - 675 = 39 or 2 points for Chic.
Chic was home 3 + 2 = 5 the spread had Chic by 5 or 5 - 6 = -1 or +1 for Utah. Utah won the game outright. The negative/positive
computation must be -1, +1 or greater for the PLAY
Negative
/positive computation
Chic
714 - Utah 675 = 39
Chic
2 + 3 (home) = 5
Chic
5 - 6 = -1 (or +1 Utah)
My interpretation:
VISITOR: UTAH Win % = .675
HOME:
CHI Win % = .714
714 – 675 = 39
20% of 39 = 1.95
Rounded up to the nearest 10th = 2
2 + 3 = 5
Line is CHI (Hm fav) -5
(This is where I get a
bit confused: Why, How, What, Where is the “6” insofar as UTAH is concerned?)
5 minus 5 = 0
0 is > -1;
This results in a no play
Ok
there it is, now this is how I figure it out.
If
you have a home favorite with a better winning %, to me, this is pretty much
straight forward.
You
take the higher %, subtract the lower %... divide by 20.
Add
3 (for being at home) and then subtract the spread.
If
this final calculation number is above 10 (=>11), it is a play on the home favorite.
If
this final calculation result is negative 1 (-1) or less, then it is a play on
the underdog.
If
the final calculation result is anywhere in between (0-10), then it is a no
play.
That's
it. Straight up, simple as can be.
Now
the tricky one
What
to do if a home team with a lower winning % is favored in the game.
This
is where the confusion lies. There has been much discussion as to whether or
not the dog needs to come out with a number above 10 or just the fact they are
a positive number is enough.
Now
I have had great difficulty interpreting how this should be played, and why.
I
finally decided to base my plays selection on two emailed examples I had
received from Walt.
Here
they are:
-------------------------------------------------------------
Example
1:
Christmas
Day 2000
Indiana at home minus 5 1/2 vs. Orlando
This
is what he types, word for word, letter for letter:
Orl
462-Ind 429=33 or 1.5 Orl-3(H) =1.5Ind-5.5(SP) = -4 Indy or +4 Orl -4 is > than-1
thus it is play. Orl (+5.5) Indy
Orl
lost.
My interpretation:
VISITOR:
ORL Win % = .462
HOME: IND Win % = .429
462 – 429 = 33
20% of 33 = 1.65
Rounded up to the nearest 10th = 2
2 - 3 = -1
Line is Indy (Hm fav) -5½
-1 minus 5½ = -6.50
-6.50 is < -1;
This results in a play on ORL +5½
Orlando loses the game and so does the
system
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Example
2:
Feb
2 2001.
Indy
home -4 vs. Den
This
is what he wrote:
Keeping
an eye on Den (+4) Indy -this is the 3rd situation where one team is % better
but is getting points and is not a -/+ computation game. Den 565 – Indy 444 =121
or 6; Den-3 (home-Indy) =3 Den+4 (spread Indy) = 7. Den (people would sub and
think it was 3-4= -1, I add 4 because if Indy -4 then Den is +4) It seems
logical that if a team is better % wise they should be giving points not
getting them so I have decided to watch this 3rd situation (1st-final #10 or
more, 2nd - -/+comp)
My interpretation:
VISITOR:
DEN Win % = .565
HOME: IND Win % = .444
565 – 444 = 121;
20% of 121 = 6.05;
Rounded down to the nearest 10th = 6;
6 - 3 = 3 (Denver is the dog but has a better win %;
Line is Indy (Hm fav) -4;
3 minus 4 = -1;
-1 is the final number value;
This results in a play on Denver +4;
Do not know the result of this game.