Devils-Lightning suspended game will resume Sunday

January 10, 2010 by Meestermike
NEWARK, N.J. (AP)?The Tampa Bay Lightning and New Jersey Devils aren?t going to have to wait very long to finish their suspended game.

The NHL announced Saturday that the teams will play the final period and a half at the Prudential Center, starting at 6 p.m. on Sunday.

The game was suspended on Friday night with 9:12 left in the second period when a lighting problem on one side of the arena could not be fixed.

The teams waited almost two hours before the league decided to suspend the game for safety concerns with the Lightning leading 3-0. The players left the ice... More...

MM's 09-NFL Week 2

September 20, 2009 by Meestermike

Week 2 is upon us. This is adjustment day and also judgment day for many reasons; coaching, playing, officiating, and ultimately linemaking.

The coaches react to week one's officiating and players performances; the referees react to all of the screw ups in week one; and the linesmaker gives us 5 as an average right across the 16 game board as a result of this. Slim pickings for some of the faint at heart, joe public is just siding w/ their favourite teams, while the sharps are doing what they do best. ATS is always about balancing $$$. Linesmakers are battling each...

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MM's NFL-09 Week 2

September 20, 2009 by Meestermike

Week 2 is upon us. This is adjustment day and also judgement day for many reasons; coaching, playing, officiating,
and ultimately linemaking.

The coaches react to week one's officiating and players performances; the referees react to all of the screw ups in
week one; and the linesmaker gives us 5 as an average right across the 16 game board as a result of this. Slim
pickings for some of the faint at heart, joe public is just siding w/ their favourite teams, while the sharps are
doing what they do best. Ats is always about balancing $$$. Linesmakers are battling each other for joe publics'
patronage and their hard earned money.


Having multiple outs is imperative to the handicapper who trys to eek out a positive balance and the end of the
season. Knowing what to look at , how to use the knowledge you acquire and methodically wagering what you can afford
is my approach. If you get beaten up one week, step back and re-analyze your approach. If you do OK do the same
thing as I just mentioned. If you do well don't go crazy; just keep within your budget and watch your bottom line
grow.

I use my own approach that has served me well most of the last 8 seasons. So again, I will play my normal style
today of a plethura of games and just hope I don't get my butt handed to me by doing so.


This is one of those weeks where you place your money down and try not to lose 10 lbs. of sweat by the day's end.


Here's to some winners today While I sit back & hope my 49er's can eek out a win

Week 2:

San Francisco -108 ml

Kansas City -2½ -108
Tennessee -6½ -110
NY Jets +4 -110
Green Bay -8½ -104
Detroit +10 +104
Atlanta -6 +100
Washington -9 -107
Jacksonville -3 -106
Cleveland +3 +106
San Diego -3 +110
Chicago -2½ +103
Dallas -3 +105

YTD Results... 11-6-1 +7.03 units

Week 1: 11-6-1 +7.03 units
ATS: 7-5-1 +1.73
ML's: 2-1-0 +3.3
Totals: 2-0-0 +2
Team Totals: 0-0-0

A Mathematical Mind Boggler

December 20, 2008 by Meestermike

I have been reading and re-reading this NBA 70% Math theory. It's got under my skin so I tore apart the original post and have made some analysis.

Favorite win pct. subtract dog win pct. add/subtract 3 for being home/away and then subtract the spread, if the final number is above 10 its a play on the fav spread, if the final number is below 0, its a play on the dog spread.

Example: CLE vs. DEN

The spread for the game is Cle -9.5 points

Cle winning % is .600 and Denver is .057

Subtract the difference

Cle 600 - Den 057 = 543

Give 1 point for every 20% points

Therefore 543 = 27, round to the nearest tenth

Home team is given 3 points

Subtract or add the difference

Cle is 37 and Den is home thus 27- 3 = 24

Then subtract or add point spread for the final number value

The spread for the game is Cle -9.5 points, thus 24 - 9.5 = 14.5

The final number must be 10 or greater for a PLAY. In this example, Cle is the PLAY.

If the spread is 10 or greater, do not play.

  1. Don't play if selected team played the night before (No back to back games)
  2. Don’t play of one or more regular starters are out. Allow one week for return of regular starters.
  3. Don't play 1st 20 games of the season or 1st 3 games after all star break

My interpretation:

Favorite win % minus Dog win %;

From result, you give 1 point for every 20% of the results;

Add\Subtract 3 for being home or away;

Subtract 3 from the home team if they are favored;

Add 3 to the visiting team if they are favored;

Subtract the spread;

If the final number is above 10, your play is on the favorite;

If the final number is below 0, your play is on the dog.

Example: CLE vs. DEN

The spread for the game is CLE -9½ -110.

CLE win % is .600 and DEN win % is .057;

Subtract the lower % from the higher %;

CLE 600 minus DEN 057 = 543;

Give 1 point for every 20% of the result;

Therefore, 543 = 27 (543/20 = 27.15 ~ rounded to nearest 10th = 27);

Home team is given 3 points for home court advantage;

This 3 point allotment, in my opinion is questionable as a standard for this formula;

Subtract or add the difference;

(This is where I get a bit confused: Why, how or what is “Cle is 37”?)

Denver is at home, thus 27 – 3 = 24;

Then subtract or add point spread for the final number value;

The spread for the game is CLE -9½ points, thus 24 – 9½ = 14½;

The final number value must be >10 for a PLAY;

(Again I get confused because he states” The final number must be 10 or greater for a PLAY”)

The final number value is 14½. In this example, CLE at -9½-110 is the PLAY

Parameters\Filters

  1. If the game spread is 10 or > 10, do not play.
  2. Don't play if your selected team played the immediate day before (No back to back games).
  3. Don’t play of one or more regular starters are out. Allow one week for the return of regular starter(s).
  4. Don't play during the 1st 20 games of the season or 1st 3 games after all star break.

10 steps to predicting the outcome of an NBA game:

  1. Check win %: Cle 600 at Den 057
  2. Subtract the teams’ winning %’s : 600 - 057 = 543
  3. Give 1 point for every 20% points to result.
  4. Find point equivalent 543 = 27 points, rounded to the nearest tenth (543 / 20 = 27.15)
  5. <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:Tahoma; panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:1627421319 -2147483648 8 0 66047 0;} @font-face {font-family:Verdana; panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:536871559 0 0 0 415 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> Give home team 3 points Cle 27 - den 3 = 24 Add/subtract difference
  6. Add/subtract the point spread
  7. Final number value must be 10 or greater Cle 24 - 9.5 = 14.5
  8. 14.5 is > 10
  9. Cleveland is a Road favorite at -9.5
  10. Play is on Cleveland to cover the spread.

Another PLAY can be derived from a negative /positive computation.

For example Utah/Chic 1/25/98, CHI is -5 -110.

Chic % is 714 and Utah is 675. Thus 714 - 675 = 39 or 2 points for Chic. Chic was home 3 + 2 = 5 the spread had Chic by 5 or 5 - 6 = -1 or +1 for Utah. Utah won the game outright. The negative/positive computation must be -1, +1 or greater for the PLAY

Negative /positive computation

Chic 714 - Utah 675 = 39

Chic 2 + 3 (home) = 5

Chic 5 - 6 = -1 (or +1 Utah)

My interpretation:

VISITOR: UTAH Win % = .675

HOME: CHI Win % = .714

714 – 675 = 39

20% of 39 = 1.95

Rounded up to the nearest 10th = 2

2 + 3 = 5

Line is CHI (Hm fav) -5

(This is where I get a bit confused: Why, How, What, Where is the “6” insofar as UTAH is concerned?)

5 minus 5 = 0

0 is > -1;

This results in a no play

Ok there it is, now this is how I figure it out.

If you have a home favorite with a better winning %, to me, this is pretty much straight forward.

You take the higher %, subtract the lower %... divide by 20.

Add 3 (for being at home) and then subtract the spread.

If this final calculation number is above 10 (=>11), it is a play on the home favorite.

If this final calculation result is negative 1 (-1) or less, then it is a play on the underdog.

If the final calculation result is anywhere in between (0-10), then it is a no play.

That's it. Straight up, simple as can be.

Now the tricky one

What to do if a home team with a lower winning % is favored in the game.

This is where the confusion lies. There has been much discussion as to whether or not the dog needs to come out with a number above 10 or just the fact they are a positive number is enough.

Now I have had great difficulty interpreting how this should be played, and why.

I finally decided to base my plays selection on two emailed examples I had received from Walt.

Here they are:

-------------------------------------------------------------

Example 1:

Christmas Day 2000

Indiana at home minus 5 1/2 vs. Orlando

This is what he types, word for word, letter for letter:

Orl 462-Ind 429=33 or 1.5 Orl-3(H) =1.5Ind-5.5(SP) = -4 Indy or +4 Orl -4 is > than-1 thus it is play. Orl (+5.5) Indy

Orl lost.

My interpretation:

VISITOR: ORL Win % = .462

HOME: IND Win % = .429

462 – 429 = 33

20% of 33 = 1.65

Rounded up to the nearest 10th = 2

2 - 3 = -1

Line is Indy (Hm fav) -5½

-1 minus 5½ = -6.50

-6.50 is < -1;

This results in a play on ORL +5½

Orlando loses the game and so does the system

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Example 2:

Feb 2 2001.

Indy home -4 vs. Den

This is what he wrote:

Keeping an eye on Den (+4) Indy -this is the 3rd situation where one team is % better but is getting points and is not a -/+ computation game. Den 565 – Indy 444 =121 or 6; Den-3 (home-Indy) =3 Den+4 (spread Indy) = 7. Den (people would sub and think it was 3-4= -1, I add 4 because if Indy -4 then Den is +4) It seems logical that if a team is better % wise they should be giving points not getting them so I have decided to watch this 3rd situation (1st-final #10 or more, 2nd - -/+comp)

My interpretation:

VISITOR: DEN Win % = .565

HOME: IND Win % = .444

565 – 444 = 121;

20% of 121 = 6.05;

Rounded down to the nearest 10th = 6;

6 - 3 = 3 (Denver is the dog but has a better win %;

Line is Indy (Hm fav) -4;

3 minus 4 = -1;

-1 is the final number value;

This results in a play on Denver +4;

Do not know the result of this game.

 
 
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