I have been reading and re-reading this NBA 70% Math theory. It's got under my skin so I tore apart the original post and have made some analysis.

Give home team 3 points Cle 27 - den 3 = 24 Add/subtract difference

Another PLAY can be derived from a negative /positive computation.

For example Utah/Chic 1/25/98, CHI is -5 -110.

Chic % is 714 and Utah is 675. Thus 714 - 675 = 39 or 2 points for Chic. Chic was home 3 + 2 = 5 the spread had Chic by 5 or 5 - 6 = -1 or +1 for Utah. Utah won the game outright. The negative/positive computation must be -1, +1 or greater for the PLAY

Negative /positive computation

Chic 714 - Utah 675 = 39

Chic 2 + 3 (home) = 5

Chic 5 - 6 = -1 (or +1 Utah)

My interpretation:

VISITOR: UTAH Win % = .675

HOME: CHI Win % = .714

714 – 675 = 39

20% of 39 = 1.95

Rounded up to the nearest 10^th = 2

2 + 3 = 5

Line is CHI (Hm fav) -5

(This is where I get a bit confused: Why, How, What, Where is the “6” insofar as UTAH is concerned?)

5 minus 5 = 0

0 is > -1;

This results in a no play

Ok there it is, now this is how I figure it out.

If you have a home favorite with a better winning %, to me, this is pretty much straight forward.

You take the higher %, subtract the lower %... divide by 20.

Add 3 (for being at home) and then subtract the spread.

If this final calculation number is above 10 (=>11), it is a play on the home favorite.

If this final calculation result is negative 1 (-1) or less, then it is a play on the underdog.

If the final calculation result is anywhere in between (0-10), then it is a no play.

That's it. Straight up, simple as can be.

Now the tricky one

What to do if a home team with a lower winning % is favored in the game.

This is where the confusion lies. There has been much discussion as to whether or not the dog needs to come out with a number above 10 or just the fact they are a positive number is enough.

Now I have had great difficulty interpreting how this should be played, and why.

I finally decided to base my plays selection on two emailed examples I had received from Walt.

Here they are:

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Example 1:

Christmas Day 2000

Indiana at home minus 5 1/2 vs. Orlando

This is what he types, word for word, letter for letter:

Orl 462-Ind 429=33 or 1.5 Orl-3(H) =1.5Ind-5.5(SP) = -4 Indy or +4 Orl -4 is > than-1 thus it is play. Orl (+5.5) Indy

Orl lost.

My interpretation:

VISITOR: ORL Win % = .462

HOME: IND Win % = .429

462 – 429 = 33

20% of 33 = 1.65

Rounded up to the nearest 10^th = 2

2 - 3 = -1

Line is Indy (Hm fav) -5½

-1 minus 5½ = -6.50

-6.50 is < -1;

This results in a play on ORL +5½

Orlando loses the game and so does the system

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Example 2:

Feb 2 2001.

Indy home -4 vs. Den

This is what he wrote:

Keeping an eye on Den (+4) Indy -this is the 3rd situation where one team is % better but is getting points and is not a -/+ computation game. Den 565 – Indy 444 =121 or 6; Den-3 (home-Indy) =3 Den+4 (spread Indy) = 7. Den (people would sub and think it was 3-4= -1, I add 4 because if Indy -4 then Den is +4) It seems logical that if a team is better % wise they should be giving points not getting them so I have decided to watch this 3rd situation (1st-final #10 or more, 2nd - -/+comp)

My interpretation:

VISITOR: DEN Win % = .565

HOME: IND Win % = .444

565 – 444 = 121;

20% of 121 = 6.05;

Rounded down to the nearest 10^th = 6;

6 - 3 = 3 (Denver is the dog but has a better win %;

Line is Indy (Hm fav) -4;

3 minus 4 = -1;

-1 is the final number value;

This results in a play on Denver +4;

Do not know the result of this game.